Blog: Royal tide coming this weekend, accompanied by rain and wind

Yesterday and last night we collected about a tenth of an inch of rain. It wasn’t much, but it was a nice pouring rain. Moreover, each small gesture contributes to the long-term deficit. The rain left in the morning and there was some clearing in some places inland. In parts of the interior and west, temperatures had fallen to the mid-to-upper 30s. It was around freezing point via I-95.

weather this morning

A few clouds and a northerly breeze kept actual temperatures a bit near shore, but it was still chilly with the north wind. High pressure is moving into the area today. So we will have good sunshine.

Tower camera this morning
Regional weather map

We will be partly sunny all day, but the north wind will keep it cool in the afternoon. High temperatures will only be in the mid 50s. We will have a northerly wind at 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph. We will have partly cloudy skies tonight, and we will stay dry. The winds will drop a little. They will be out of the north at 5-10 mph. The temperatures will therefore drop a little. Overnight lows will be in the 40s in the metro, but likely to be 30+ inland. It will probably still be in the 50s right by the shore.

This cooler inland air could allow frost to form in areas that didn’t have it this morning. You may want to bring the potted plants if you are in a generally colder section of the region. I am thinking of the courthouses in Gloucester, Chesapeake, Williamsburg, Franklin and Ahoskie to name a few.

Tomorrow we will have more and more clouds. There will be a few showers in the afternoon as the low pressure strengthens towards our south. There will be more chance of rain over North Carolina.

European model (Saturday)

The wind will blow from the northeast. It will run at 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. High temperatures will be in the upper 50s. There will be some minor tidal flooding today and tomorrow. It won’t be too bad during this period. This will primarily be for the lower Chesapeake Bay and the Outer Banks.

Tide forecast (Sewell’s Point)

However, on Sunday the wind, rain and tides will all increase. the tidal floods could reach moderate levels over the southern Chesapeake Bay and the Outer Banks. Shouldn’t be too bad north of the Chesapeake Bay. It won’t be like the recent tidal floods up there. However, there could be an ocean overflow on the Outer Banks this time. the royal tide, a particularly high tide due to astronomical conditions, also occurs this weekend. So that adds to the effect.

Winds are expected to blow from the northeast at around 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. There could be gusts between 35 and 40 mph near the shore. There may even be a few 40mph gusts on the East Coast and Outer Banks for a brief period.

Wind forecast (Sunday)

There will be a lot of rain along the coast. There should be less rain inland/west.

European model (Sunday)

Keep in mind that the models literally went back and forth the distance west of the rain on Sunday. The latest GFS is drier than the Euro.

Sunday model GFS

The basic theme for Sunday is stronger winds and higher chance of rain near the coast with less chance to the north and west. Here is the latest Euro rainfall forecast:

European precipitation forecast model

The low will move seaward by Sunday evening. Then we will be dry and milder early next week.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Back To Top