Experts warn Nigeria of impending global recession

Economic and financial experts have warned that Nigeria could face severe economic consequences if the global economy shrinks into a recession, as predicted by the World Bank.
World Bank Group President David Malpass recently said at a trade event in the United States that it was difficult “to see how we could avoid a recession”.
His comments are the latest warning of the growing risk that the global economy will contract as the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine continues.
“As we look at global GDP…it is currently difficult to see how to avoid a recession.
“The thought of energy prices doubling is enough to trigger a recession on its own,” he said.
Last month, the World Bank cut its forecast for global economic growth for this year by nearly one percentage point, to 3.2%.
Malpass also said that many European countries were still too dependent on Russia for oil and gas.
It is even as Western nations move forward with plans to reduce their dependence on Russian energy.
He also told a virtual event hosted by the American Chamber of Commerce that Russia’s moves to cut gas supplies could cause a “substantial downturn” in the region.
He said rising energy prices were already weighing on Germany, which is Europe’s largest economy and the world’s fourth largest.
Developing countries are also affected by shortages of fertilizers, food and energy, Malpass said.
Also speaking in an interview with reporters, the Director General of the Center for Promoting Private Enterprise, Dr. Muda Yusuf, said a global recession would have a catastrophic effect on the Nigerian economy.
Yusuf said Nigeria was already facing tough economic challenges which would be further compounded by a contraction in the global economy.
“The impact of a global recession will obviously be very adverse. This means that the challenges we are currently facing will get even worse as we are already facing many inflation-related issues.
“We are facing a lot of issues related to foreign exchange and macroeconomic issues in general, which are driven by external factors.

“So if you have a global recession, we can see effects on some of these things that can make those variables a lot more difficult.

“We have so many problems that are internal to us. So when you combine these internal problems with these external variables or factors, you can imagine the impact it will have not only on the economy, but on the lives of citizens, on investments and so many other things. It’s not going to be pleasant at all,” he said.

According to him, the war between Russia and Ukraine will continue to have far-reaching consequences due to the interests of foreign countries that have caused a ripple effect in the global economic space.

On the other hand, a professor of economics at Olabisi Onabanjo University, Professor Sheriffdeen Tella, said that a global recession, especially a recession caused by the energy crisis resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian war, would highlight Nigeria’s continued inability to meet its global crude oil needs. supply quota, set by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

He noted that a global recession, if prolonged for a long period, could have serious consequences for the Nigerian economy.

“Actually, it’s supposed to have a positive impact, but it didn’t happen because we don’t have any oil to sell. We do not produce to meet demand. What is meant by global recession is that most of Europe depends on Russian gas and oil. Since he is not coming, the cost of things there has gone up.

“So consumers are likely to demand less. When this happens, it also has many effects on developing countries. This is what we call the contingent effect.

“When you have a global recession. It affects consumption in those countries,” he said.

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