Florida weather forecast: tropical system, rising tide, rain

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An area of ​​low pressure in the northeastern Caribbean that is observed by the National Hurricane Center could bring wet weather to Florida by the weekend of October 9-10, 2021. This was the area’s position at 2 p.m. on October 5.

National Hurricane Center

Be careful what you ask the National Weather Service in Miami.

You might not like the answer. But meteorologists need to keep it real.

So on Tuesday when a Southeast Florida “weather enthusiast” sent a call to the weather service on Twitter – “Can you keep the rain away for this Saturday? – the answer was not what this enthusiast probably wanted to hear.

“Give it a try! Right now, Saturday seems like one of the wettest days of the week,” the service said. With a ray of sunshine to aid the descent.

“As it is only Tuesday, there is still time for the forecast to change.”

That said, on Tuesday morning, the chance of rain on Saturday was 70%. In the afternoon, a check saw it climb to 80%.

Why it might rain this week

Looks like there is a low pressure area in the northeastern Caribbean which is monitored by the National Hurricane Center. The system of disorganized showers and thunderstorms was east of a surface trough extending north from central Bahamas over adjacent waters of the southwest Atlantic on Tuesday afternoon.

The system was about 200 miles east of Florida’s east coast on Wednesday and its humidity was well east of its axis due to strong upper winds, the central hurricane specialist said, Robbie Berg, in his report. These winds are not expected to be conducive to significant development of this system as it moves slowly north and then northeast off the southeast coast of the United States over the next few days. .

The system has only a 10% chance to grow in the next five days. By the weekend, the system is expected to interact with a front near the southeast coast of the United States.

This positioning could displace wet weather in the general direction of Florida as well as along the eastern seaboard of the United States, the hurricane center said. South Florida is likely to receive some of this rain, although a tropical system seems unlikely. The Florida Panhandle and Jacksonville will benefit more from this potentially wet and windy weather.

Columbus Day, Monday, considers a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms in Miami, Orlando and Jacksonville, according to the weather service. The peak will be in the mid-1980s.

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Miami National Hurricane Center advisory card at 8 a.m. on October 6, 2021. National Hurricane Center

There is also another coincidence this week.

Royal tide time

Royal tides, the highest of high tides, are a natural annual event. But as the world warms due to climate change, rising sea levels are pushing those tides up.

This year, peak tides are expected to fall on October 6 and November 4, with less dramatic peaks before and after. On Wednesday, the high tide is at 8:43 a.m. and 8:59 p.m.

The height of the tides depends on the strength of the wind and in what direction, if it is raining, and even on the speed of the current off the coast of Florida.

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Brian McNoldy’s hourly water level forecast for Virginia Key projects its highest tide to come on November 5, 2021. McNoldy is the senior research associate at the Rosenstiel School at the University of Miami. Brian McNoldy

Miami will have portable storm water pumps positioned southeast of 14th Street and at Brickell Bay Drive, southeast of 10th Street and at Brickell Plaza, at the east end of northeast of 23rd Street. in Biscayne Bay, northeast of 55th Street and 7th Avenue, and Little River Pocket Park.

“We have additional pumps that can be deployed to one or two other ‘hot spots’ as needed, but in our experience these won’t be needed for future King Tides depending on expected tide heights,” Miami deputy Chris Bennett said. responsible for resilience.

Miami Beach plans to place 10 portable pumps in flood-prone locations and has two vacuum trucks it can send to soak up standing water.

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These images show the extent of the September 30, 2019 rising tide on First Street in Miami Beach. The city is willing to spend more than $ 40 million to improve the area’s drainage. Miami Beach City

Daily forecasts

Here’s what to expect, according to the hazardous weather forecast from the Weather Service.

For South Florida, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible every day as the weekend approaches. This activity increases Thursday evening when the risk of a thunderstorm reaches 60%.

“Heavy rains locally and a few stronger storms could become a concern,” the center said, with a possibility of minor coastal flooding during high tide.

Temperatures will reach the mid-1980s.

Jacksonville and Gainesville also had an 80% storm probability for Saturday, four days apart.

Orlando and Bradenton, a little less – 70%.

This story was originally published October 5, 2021 4:57 pm.

Miami Herald Real Time / Breaking News reporter Howard Cohen, winner of the 2017 Media Excellence Awards, has covered pop music, theater, health and fitness, obituaries, city government, and general missions. He began his career in the Features department of the Miami Herald in 1991.
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